Nouriel Roubini is a Professor at Stern School, NYU, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics (www.roubini.com) and Web Entrepreneur.
» Three past global recessions caused by MidEast political & oil shocks: Yom Kippur War ’73; Iran’s revolution ’79; Iraq invaiding Kuwait ’90
» MidEast has 2/3 of world oil reserves and almost 1/2 of the gas reserves. So political instability there impacts global economies/markets
» Effect of oil/food price rise: higher inflation in EM, lower growth in advanced economies, greater political risk & rise in risk aversion
» I am all for democracy/elections & against autocrats. But so far change in MidEast (Iran,Gaza,Iraq,Lebanon) hasn’t led to stable democracy
» Hopefully regime change/elections in Tunisia/Egypt will lead to a more stable/democratic outcome than in Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq
» So far democracy/elections in MidEast has led to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, political chaos & radical Shia in Iraq, Iran’s Mullahs
» Morozov’s Net Delusion view – dictators will successfully censor the Net to continue repression – challenged by the events in Tunisia/Egypt
» Side effects of social media, 24/7 online info and high speed trading: financial contagion and political contagion. All for the better?
