Emirates NBD, the United Arab Emirates biggest lender by assets, released today the latest weekly Precious Metals Report.
Gold: US$1,739.0–US$1,723.50 – up US$1.50 since last week.
Gold option volatilities have softened over the course of the last two weeks to the tune of between 1.5%-2% in the one and three month time bucket. The price movements measured at the end of the week seem minimal, but that does not reflect the reality at all. Gold prices have wavered sharply between US$1,734 and US$1,705.
The trading between these numbers has at times been erratic and the market was behaving in a very classic see-saw manner. There will be a lot of focus next week over developments in the Greek saga. The outcome will impact the US/EUR rates and that might also be reflected in the gold price.
Option volatilities midrates: Gold atm (at the money)
1 month 16.25 % down 1.25 %
3 month 18.50 % down 1.00 %
6 month 20.50 % down 1.00 %
1 year 22.50 % down 1.00 %
EFP Spot Gold to April Comex: US$1.45
ETF: Holdings are at 2440 tons overall, an increase of 10 tons
Support: 1,705 and 1,683
Resistance: 1,738 and 176
Silver: US$33.27 – down US$0.33 since last week.
Silver is continuing to trade very variably in a relatively “narrow” trading range of US$32.90 to US$34.35. Silver option volatilities have come down an astonishing 7.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively, for the one and three month time bucket during the last two weeks. Silver volatilities have traded in its heydays of 2011 above 60 per cent.
These developments show that the gains from silver, of approximately 22 per cent since the beginning of the year, have brought silver prices to a level of comfort for all market participants. Short positions have been further reduced, according to the latest CFTF Commitments of Traders Report.
Option volatilities midrates: Silver atm (at the money)
1 month 31.50 % down 3.00 %
3 month 34.50 % down 2.50 %
6 month 36.50 % down 1.50 %
1 year 38.00 % down 1.50 %
EFP Spot Silver to March Comex: US $ minus 8 cent
ETF: Holdings are at 15060 tons, a decrease of 70 tons
Support: 32.90 and 31.85
Resistance: 34.56 and 35.00
Platinum: US$1,627 – down US$25 since last week.
The strike situation at Impala Platinum is coming to a close. Impala is well on its way to re-hiring staff. This process, according to Impala, is expected to end next week, with the necessary safety and security training needs to follow.
The differential to gold has increased again to US $ 100 but this is still only half of what it was only a few weeks ago. The market will assess over the next few months if the losses of platinum, resulting out of this illegal strike, will push the supply side into a deficit for 2012.
Some market participants expected a surplus of approximately 240 000 ounces for 2012 before the strike started, and these numbers have since been significantly eroded. The next few weeks will show if the impressive rally has been of substance, or if it was merely a result of aggressive short-covering.
Option volatilities midrates: Platinum atm (at the money)
1 month 20.00 % down 1.00 %
3 month 23.00 % down 1.00 %
6 month 25.00 % down 0.50 %
1 year 26.50 % down 0.50 %
EFP Spot Platinum loco Zurich to April NYMEX: US$ 2.10
ETF: Holdings are up by 1 ton to 47 tons.
Support: 1603 and 157
Resistance: 1653 and 1678
Palladium: US $ 682 – down US $ 18 since last week.
There was a lackluster performance from palladium last week. The loss of US$18 over the course of the week can be fully attributed to the weakness of platinum. Throughout the week palladium has been a mere passenger, with no visible autonomous impetus that could have changed the direction at any time. The support level of US $ 680 is important for next week, as a break could technically signal a fallback towards US$645.
Option volatilities midrates: Palladium atm (at the money)
1 month 27.00 % down 4.00 %
3 month 32.00 % down 1.50 %
6 month 34.00 % down 1.00 %
1 year 35.50 % down 0.50 %
EFP Spot Palladium loco Zurich to March NYMEX: US $ 0.20
ETF: Holdings have increased by 0.5 tons to 58.5 tons
Support: 680 and 645
Resistance: 700 and 719
Save the date: The Dubai Precious Metals Conference will take place on 29th and 30th April 2012. This conference is an initiative from the DMCC and organised by Foretell Business Solutions.
