The silver market is up 16.18% on the quarter and while January and February’s very sharp gains made the market the star of the major commodities initially this year, trading has moderated over the last month. The market is holding above the underlying bull trend from 2008 and sustaining the one year moving average.
However, last week, investors posted the first positive performance in the past five weeks. If there is no strong economic data out of the US this week, then there is a risk that the silver price will fall back and test 30.47 and even 29.93. This last area is a pivotal support, marking 66% of the recovery from end of 2011 to February’s high. If the market can hold above here, then the underlying outlook for silver will remain constructive.
To generate a more positive near term outlook silver needs to break above the recent highs around 33.70
