Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development and Dubai Department of Economic Development hosted on 3rd of February the “UAE Economic Prospects Forum 2014” at the Emirates Palace Hotel in Abu Dhabi. The forum reviewed the future prospects for the UAE in the light of the economic indicators and the economic progress achieved by the national economy under the developments of the global economy.
UAE economy has achieved remarkable progress in 2013, where GDP rose to more than AED 4.1 trillion growing at 4% according to the IMF data, which was a relatively good rate of growth in view of the unstable global economic conditions. However, the non-oil sectors contribution to growth was considerably high, reaching 7% in some sectors 7%, while sectors of tourism, industry and finance came on top of the sectors.
The activities of the Emirates securities market increased, and that Dubai Financial Market was ranked first topping all international exchange markets by a growth rate which exceeded 106%. Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange also grew by 63%.
The country has achieved advanced positions in various global indicators, such as competitiveness index, the ease of doing business, economic freedom and, trade across the borders, in equal footing with and sometimes outweighing in many cases the major western economies, noting that the State confidently set its unique development model over the years, and is forward looking to a bright future and the thriving economic prospects.
The emirate of Abu Dhabi is witnessing a new phase of expansion and economic development, based on the vision of the leadership of the emirate, embodied in the economic vision of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi 2030, which aims primarily at moving the economy into a new phase of development entitled the “knowledge-based economy.” By tracing the economy of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, one finds that every day the economy continues to achieve quantity and quality breakthrough of excellence in various fields, in order to realize economic diversification, in the light of the numerous achievements on the path of economic development and remarkable growth rates, especially the huge development projects which were directed mostly toward non-oil activities.
The ambitious policy adopted by the government of Abu Dhabi over the past few years to diversify the economy, exploiting the available resources and the competitive advantages, that contributed to creating many investment opportunities in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, which coincided with the orientations of the Government of Abu Dhabi, to stimulate and encourage the private sector to create real and effective partnership, support the development process of the emirate, create an inviting, efficient and attractive environment for the business, and to integrate into the global economy.
The economy of the emirate of Dubai has witnessed a renewed vitality in the recent period, as Dubai GDP grew in accelerated pace during the period 2012-2013. Average growth reached nearly 7.4 per cent per annum, which is considered as a good performance in view of the international economic climate, and crisis in the European Union and the slowing growth in a number of emerging countries.
The sectors of tourism, trade, transport, communications, logistics, achieved the highest levels of growth in the past two years, with the gradual recovery of both the construction and the real estate sector. Dubai boosted its position as a regional center for services and goods and as an ideal destination for foreign visitors, which led to high growth in value added at an average rate of 15% for the hospitality sector for the second year in a row. This steady growth will continue in Dubai at 7.4 % in 2014, and to accelerate In the coming years , with the hosting of Expo 2020 and the anticipated improvement in the global economy.
Dubai’s economy has proved its resilience and shown remarkable growth appetite in the last two years. GDP growth indeed accelerated in the years 2012-2013, averaging nearly 4.7 per cent per year, which was a good performance in view of persistent recovery problems in the EU and the slowdown in emerging countries.
The key sectors leading growth in Dubai have been tourism, trade, transportation, logistics and communication, with construction and real estate lagging behind until recently. In the last two years, Dubai has consolidated its position as a regional hub for services and goods and a major destination for international visitors, leading to double-digit growth in the hospitality sector for the second consecutive year.
Dubai’s growth is expected to remain steady, at about 4.7 per cent in 2014, with likely acceleration in the following years, as Dubai gears up for Expo 2020 and the global economic environment improves.
Under the title “A shining view of the economic development journey of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and its future prospects for 2014-2017”, Ms Shorooq Abdullah Al Zaabi, Head of the Development Indicators and Future Studies, at the Planning and Statistics Division of Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development in, gave a presentation on the most important economic forecasts for the emirate during the period 2014-2017.
Shorooq Alzaabi in her presentation stressed that the UAE economy, to which the Emirate of Abu Dhabi contributes about two-thirds of the UAE GDP, has become the focus, and gained respect and attention of the international community, as confirmed by many global economic indicators, such as the competitiveness index, the ease of doing business, the financial development and other indicators, which were the fruits of the efforts exerted by the leadership of the State, which always aims at raising the standard of living of citizens and residents in the UAE, where the people of the State sit on top of the happiest people in the world and its sisterly Arab countries.
Shorooq reported that these developments are reflected in the various economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, and economic diversification, and the development of infrastructure and other; all of which emphasize the proven fact that the welfare of the citizens of the UAE is the goal and the purpose sought by the wise government and sagacious leadership of His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the President of State.
Shorooq Al Zaabi shed light on the entering of the economy of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, into a new phase of development and progress, along the successful path towards shifting to a sustainable economy based on knowledge according to the determinants of the of Abu Dhabi economic Vision 2030.
Shorooq highlighted the results of the economic forecasts for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi for the period Future 2013-2017, and initiated a review of the most important developments in the world oil market, which stresses the importance of the extractive activities contribution by about 50% to the GDP of the emirate.
Shorooq pointed out to concrete increase witnessed by the crude oil production in the emirate in 2013, in order to fill the gap in the global supply of oil, expecting to see oil production in the emirate returning again to its natural growth rates by 5.3% in the period 2014-2017, taking into account the increase in global oil supplies in North America, especially from non-conventional sources of oil such as oil and shale gas.
As for oil prices, Shorooq Alzaabi stated that projections indicate a decline in oil prices during the year 2014 to around $ 103 a barrel, compared to about $109 a barrel in 2013, with the expectation that this downward trend in oil prices will continue until 2017 to reach about $ 95 a barrel.
She said that the economic forecasts for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi indicate that the growth rate of GDP at current prices will yield 6.6% in 2013 versus 7.7% in 2012, and the slowdown is due mainly to the decline in oil prices in 2013 compared to 2012, noting that this the rate remains within the level of expectations targeted by Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030.
Shorooq added that economic forecasts indicate that it is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate at current prices at an average of 6.7% during the period 2013-2017. Shorooq said that the Economic forecasting of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi shows the escalation of the growth of GDP at constant prices, as it achieved 4.7% in 2013 versus 6.5% in 2012, with increased amounts of production of crude oil in 2013, to slow down to reach to about 7.6% in 2014 with the expectation of slower growth in the volume of daily production of crude oil, to grow at the rate of 3.7% on average during the period 2013-2017.
On the non-oil sector side, economic forecasts indicate that of Abu Dhabi non-oil GDP will grow at current prices to reach 3.10% in 2013 versus 6.9% in 2012, and to continue to reach 2.11% in 2014, and then to achieve 3.12% on average during the period 2013-2017.
As for non-oil GDP growth in real terms, forecasts indicate that growth will reach 9.8% in 2013 versus 7.7% in 2012, and to continue grow to around 0.10% in 2014, driven by announced government investments. Accordingly, it is expected to achieve an average growth rate of 4.10% during the period 2013-2017.
