Android/Android Wear will be a distant second behind watchOS even as its vendor list grows to include technology companies (ASUS, Huawei, LG, Motorola, and Sony) and traditional watchmakers (Fossil and Tag Heuer). The user experience on Android Wear devices has been largely the same from one device to the next, leaving little room for OEMs to develop further and users left to select solely on price and smartwatch design.
Smartwatch pioneer Pebble will cede market share to AndroidWear and watchOS but will not disappear altogether. Its simple user interface and devices make for an easy-to-understand use case, and its price point relative to other platforms makes Pebble one of the most affordable smartwatches on the market.
Samsung’s Tizen stands to be the dark horse of the smartwatch market and poses a threat to Android Wear, including compatibility with most flagship Android smartphones and an application selection rivaling Android Wear. Moreover, with Samsung, Tizen has benefited from technology developments including a QWERTY keyboard on a smartwatch screen, cellular connectivity, and new user interfaces. It’s a combination that helps Tizen stand out, but not enough to keep up with AndroidWear and watchOS.
There will be a small, but nonetheless significant market for smart wristwear running on a Real-Time Operating System (RTOS), which is capable of running third-party applications, but not on any of these listed platforms. These tend to be proprietary operating systems and OEMs will use them when they want to champion their own devices. These will help within specific markets or devices, but will not overtake the majority of the market.
Top Smartwatch Operating Systems with Shipments, Market Share and 5-Year CAGR Growth, (Units in Millions)
| Operating System | 2015 Unit Shipments | 2015 Market Share | 2019 Unit Shipments | 2019 Market Share | 2015-2019 CAGR |
| Android | 0.4 | 2.1% | 1.1 | 1.2% | 25.8% |
| Android Wear | 3.2 | 15.2% | 34.3 | 38.8% | 80.5% |
| Linux | 0.2 | 0.9% | 1.1 | 1.2% | 54.5% |
| Pebble OS | 1.8 | 8.6% | 2.3 | 2.6% | 5.8% |
| RTOS | 0.8 | 3.8% | 1.9 | 2.2% | 23.8% |
| Tizen | 1.7 | 8.2% | 2.5 | 2.8% | 9.5% |
| watchOS | 13.0 | 61.3% | 45.2 | 51.1% | 36.5% |
| Total | 21.3 | 100.0% | 88.3 | 100.0% | 42.8% |
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Wearable Device Tracker, December 17, 2015
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