Having peaked, at a five-year high of 1.6m barrels per day (mb/d) in 2015, global oil demand growth is forecast to ease back considerably in 2016, to 1.2 mb/d, pulled down by notable slowdowns in Europe, China and the United States, according to the newly released IEA Oil Market Report. As signs of a demand slowdown surface non-OPEC production has fallen, offset only partially by continue higher OPEC output.
Global oil supply dropped 0.2 mb/d to 96.5mb/d in January, as higher OPEC output only partly offset lower non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supplies slipped 0.5mb/d from a month earlier to stand close to levels of a year ago. For 2016 as a whole, non-OPEC output is expected to decline by 0.6 mb/d, to 57.1 mb/d.
OPEC crude oil output rose by 280 000 barrels per day in January to 32.63mb/d as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and a sanctions-free Iran all turned up the taps. Supplies from the group during January stood nearly 1.7 mb/d higher year-on-year.
OECD commercial stocks built up counter seasonally by 7.6mb in December to stand at 3,012mb at month end, 350mb above average. Refined products covered 32.3 days of forward demand, 0.1 day above the level at end-November. Preliminary information indicates that inventories have continued building into January.
Global refinery runs fell by 1.3 mb/d in January to 79.8mb/d, as the onset of seasonal maintenance in the United States and weakening refinery margins curbed runs. Global throughputs nevertheless stood more than 1.7mb/d above a year earlier, with gains particularly strong in the United States and the Middle East.
On February 22nd, the IEA will produce its medium term oil report.
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